Parlay Economics | Home Economics Journal
How Do You Measure
a War You Cannot See?
S1
Nation Set
6+ belligerent states
across theaters
S2
Domain Set
3+ conflict domains
active simultaneously
S3
Economic Set
2+ economic weapons
deliberately deployed
THRESHOLD GATE
All three sets
must hold
If any one fails,
classification ends.
Proxy penalty applied.
CLASSIFIED
Bayesian layer
runs on 6 factors
THRESHOLD
0.70
P(WW | evidence)
NOT CLASSIFIED
Classification ends.
Not a world war
candidate.
P≥0.70
Analytical framework only. Not investment advice.
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