The Real Numbers | The Window Matters
Same Three Investments,
Different Answer
The order of returns flips depending on when you started. One year tells one story. Five years tells the opposite.
May 2025 to May 2026
One-Year Return
Oil wins by a wide margin.
A war and a fight over the Strait of Hormuz
drove crude up 83 percent. Bitcoin lost ground.
May 2021 to May 2026
Five-Year Return
Bitcoin wins. The order is exactly reversed.
Holding period
is the variable that flipped the ranking.
Sources: SPY and BTC daily closes via Tastytrade. WTI spot via U.S. EIA series DCOILWTICO.
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